~ Robert Craig
Every year in the wine business we reach this critical time juncture in the growing season for the wine grapes. Winter is drawing to a close and we are on the cusp of the new emergence of the vines from dormancy and the start of the grape development and maturation process for the 2012 vintage.
This year, we are reaching this critical time period from a different perspective than in recent years. Over the past four winters, we have experienced substantial rainfall and generally colder temperatures. The winter in 2010-2011 was particularly damp and cold - and it extended for a long time. That season began just a little ahead of norm, with some rainy periods in September and more extensive rain in October. From that time on, the rains continued all the way through Spring of 2011. That April set a record for rainfall for that month and the rain kept falling into mid-June. These conditions delayed bud-break well past normal expectations, thereby delaying commencement of the growing season.
To this point in the 2012 winter, a wholly different pattern has emerged. This was an unusually warm and dry winter through mid-March. Daytime temperatures were almost always above 50 degrees and many days were into the 60’s – and, occasionally, even in the 70’s. Fortunately over most of the winter, night-time temperatures remained in the 30 to low 40-degree range, which kept the sap in the vines from rising. Rainfall through early March was only 56% of normal and 44% of last year.
Now, the rains have finally arrived and big time! As of March 18, over 7 inches has fallen in Napa Valley in just over one week. The storm front is hanging around with more precipitation expected. Of course, having all that rain in such a short span isn’t the greatest scenario and we still need more to reach normal levels, but we will take what we can get! The good news is that we should have enough field moisture in the ground as the growing season begins.
Presumably, the higher spring daytime temperatures will continue and the evenings will get progressively warmer. This will pull bud-break forward and we could well see this happening toward the end of March or in early April. The effect of warmer temperatures can be seen throughout the Napa Valley, with all of the fruit trees already in full bloom. Generally speaking, this is a favorable development as it foretells that we should have a long growing season.
One final concern at this time of year is the potential for frost following bud-break. Based on the temperature patterns so far this year, the probability of extensive frost should be minimal. However, anyone who practices farming of any kind, knows that what should happen doesn’t always happen. Nature is always holding the curve ball and can throw it at any time.
Let’s all hope for the best!